A · PREDICTED VS. OBSERVED000.250.250.50.50.750.7511Model’s probabilityShare of queries that were yesperfectly calibrateddjev: 211 queries scored 0–0.05; mean P 0.001, 6% yesdjev: 3 queries scored 0.05–0.1; mean P 0.079, 33% yesdjev: 5 queries scored 0.1–0.3; mean P 0.217, 80% yesdjev: 5 queries scored 0.3–0.5; mean P 0.464, 100% yesdjev: 6 queries scored 0.5–0.7; mean P 0.594, 92% yesdjev: 7 queries scored 0.7–0.9; mean P 0.85, 100% yesdjev: 1 queries scored 0.9–1; mean P 0.908, 100% yesLuna: 207 queries scored 0–0.05; mean P 0.001, 6% yesLuna: 3 queries scored 0.05–0.1; mean P 0.06, 33% yesLuna: 5 queries scored 0.1–0.3; mean P 0.226, 30% yesLuna: 1 queries scored 0.3–0.5; mean P 0.47, 100% yesLuna: 3 queries scored 0.5–0.7; mean P 0.557, 67% yesLuna: 6 queries scored 0.7–0.9; mean P 0.777, 100% yesLuna: 13 queries scored 0.9–1; mean P 0.956, 96% yesJev: 149 queries scored 0–0.05; mean P 0.029, 1% yesJev: 34 queries scored 0.05–0.1; mean P 0.064, 10% yesJev: 21 queries scored 0.1–0.3; mean P 0.144, 17% yesJev: 7 queries scored 0.3–0.5; mean P 0.376, 43% yesJev: 5 queries scored 0.5–0.7; mean P 0.562, 50% yesJev: 17 queries scored 0.7–0.9; mean P 0.84, 97% yesJev: 5 queries scored 0.9–1; mean P 0.918, 100% yesDot size = number of queries.JevdjevLunaB · WHERE THE PROBABILITIES LANDJevJev: 149 of 238 queries scored <0.0563% below 0.05Jev: 34 of 238 queries scored 0.05–0.1Jev: 21 of 238 queries scored 0.1–0.3Jev: 7 of 238 queries scored 0.3–0.5Jev: 5 of 238 queries scored 0.5–0.7Jev: 17 of 238 queries scored 0.7–0.9Jev: 5 of 238 queries scored ≥0.95 queries at 0.9 or abovedjevdjev: 211 of 238 queries scored <0.0589% below 0.05djev: 3 of 238 queries scored 0.05–0.1djev: 5 of 238 queries scored 0.1–0.3djev: 5 of 238 queries scored 0.3–0.5djev: 6 of 238 queries scored 0.5–0.7djev: 7 of 238 queries scored 0.7–0.9djev: 1 of 238 queries scored ≥0.91 query at 0.9 or aboveLunaLuna: 207 of 238 queries scored <0.0587% below 0.05Luna: 3 of 238 queries scored 0.05–0.1Luna: 5 of 238 queries scored 0.1–0.3Luna: 1 of 238 queries scored 0.3–0.5Luna: 3 of 238 queries scored 0.5–0.7Luna: 6 of 238 queries scored 0.7–0.9Luna: 13 of 238 queries scored ≥0.913 queries at 0.9 or aboveProbability range<0.050.05–0.10.1–0.30.3–0.50.5–0.70.7–0.9≥0.9